[AMRadio] Dont forget...


Peter Markavage manualman at juno.com
Wed Dec 13 17:42:13 EST 2006


Got this info this morning. "X Class" Flare and remnants heading this way
so HF conditions might not be great.

VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
 
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
 
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
 
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
 
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
 
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
 
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
 
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO 
VERY GOOD
 
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE 
FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
 
   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO
SOUTHERN
   MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
 
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
 
   FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL
RUSSIA.
 
   NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY 
   MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
 
SYNOPSIS...
 
     A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region
930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to
produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral
storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The
most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the
initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December
(2 am EST on 14 December). The moon will begin to impinge on observations
after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations
(if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon
is still below the horizon.
 
     This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 15
December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. 
For real-time plots of current activity, visit: 
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html



On Wed, 13 Dec 2006 16:08:23 -0600 Geoff/W5OMR <ars.w5omr at gmail.com>
writes:
> Bandwarming party, tomorrow night.
> 
> Not sure what the recent ARRL petition is going to do to 3.635 and 
> below... but originating from the 5th call district will be some 
> operators on 3.650Mc.
> 
> Conditions across most of the country have been clear and storm 
> free.  
> There shouldn't be a lot of atmospheric noise.  I hope propagation 
> holds 
> true to it's current 'winter time conditions'.
> 
> I'm looking forward to an evening of Great AM Conversation!
> 
> --
> 73 & c u on the air!
> -Geoff/W5OMR



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